2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Best Bet: Back Bertoletti To Cover Spread

2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Best Bet: Back Bertoletti To Cover Spread

Updated Jul. 3, 2025, 12:29 p.m. ET – There’s nothing more quintessentially American than wagering on the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest held every Fourth of July at Coney Island. Last year’s champion, Patrick Bertoletti, devoured 58 hot dogs and buns, earning his first mustard belt in a competitive field that didn’t include Joey Chestnut.

The first hot dog “total” posted for Bertoletti in this year’s event was an over/under (O/U) of 49.5, a figure that seemed far too low considering his capabilities. DraftKings initially set his number at 50 niceph reviews.5 last week, which has now risen to 53.5 just a day before the contest. Circa Sports is currently offering the highest total on Bertoletti at 55.5.

“He was the toughest eater to price,” shared Circa’s risk manager, Dylan Sullivan, late Wednesday night. “He’s been a bit inconsistent over the years, but I noticed how the betting was moving in his favor and wanted to set a higher line. I’d rather safeguard near the upper limit than get overwhelmed with over bets.”

Patrick Bertoletti vs. Chestnut

To be honest, my “Bet Sweats” co-host Joe Ostrowski and I were excited about Bertoletti’s prop at Over 49.5, but we won’t be wagering a single peso Over 55.5. Chestnut is returning to the contest this year after being suspended last July due to a sponsorship conflict with Impossible Foods. metro manila The 16-time Nathan’s champion is the clear favorite, with odds soaring up to -2500 to win. This means you would need to bet ₱2500 to potentially win ₱100.

No thanks to that bet. Chestnut’s total is highly debatable at O/U 71.5 because he has consumed as many as 76 dogs and buns in 2021, yet only managed 63 and 62 in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

“You’d think he’d be motivated to outdo the competition,” one bettor remarked. “However, weather plays a crucial role. If it’s too hot, the pace slows down, but if it’s cooler, the food gets cold.”

“Let’s face it, you’re gambling on a line at [O/U] 71.5.” On this week’s episode of Barstool Sports’ “Pardon My Take” podcast, Chestnut mentioned that “perfect conditions” would be necessary to break his world record of 76 hot dogs. With temperatures forecasted to be in the high 60s, I’m not inclined to bet on him eating 77 or more for +300 odds.

Women’s Event Overview

In the women’s competition, Miki Sudo is the undisputed favorite, to the extent that many sportsbooks aren’t even offering a future pool for her event, reflecting her dominance. Sudo’s total is listed between 45.5 and 46.5. I did notice Sudo at +115 in a head-to-head matchup against Nick Wehry at DraftKings. Last year, Sudo set a women’s record by eating 51 dogs and buns, and I would prefer to bet on her to defeat the fourth-best male competitor directly.

Ultimately, I cannot overlook the significant betting trends favoring Bertoletti. Serious bettors have already jumped on the Overs, moving the line from 49 jili888 login register.5 to 53.5, and I’m not as assured as the market seems to be that Chestnut will hit 70 this year. Let’s see how this pans out.

Betting Prediction

PICK: Patrick Bertoletti (-130) +17 best online casino in the philippines.5 hot dogs vs. Chestnut

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He has also worked with WGN Radio, NBC Sports, and VSiN ph macao casino. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

What are your thoughts on this year’s competition and the betting lines?